27
OCT
2023
In principle, an end to the Ukraine war has also been discussed in the West for a long time - albeit hardly in public, but behind the scenes. In June, for example, the former European Director of the US National Security Council under President Barack Obama, Charles Kupchan, judged at the latest that "when the fighting season comes to an end", the West must "pass to a diplomatic strategy aimed at a ceasefire." 1] Kupchan had already participated in explorations in the spring (german-foreign-policy.com reported [2]). The background for the plea to conduct negotiations are various considerations. On the one hand, observers have long pointed out that in the approaching US presidential election campaign, continued support for Ukraine could lead to considerable problems. This is now confirmed: Among the Republicans in the US Congress, resistance to ever new billion-dollar packages for Kiev is increasing. Already in September, the visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Washington showed that the mood has deteriorated significantly since last year; this time Zelensky was denied a solemn appearance in front of both chambers of the US Congress. 3]
In addition, Israel's unexpected new war against Hamas also devours US funds and binds forces. This is already at the expense of capacities that should be made available to Ukraine. Although both wars are very different, experts explain: In Ukraine, minefields must be laboriously overcome and dense defensive positions broken, while Israel conducts air raids and prepares for bitter house fights; the two types of warfare demanded relatively different weapons, there is "very little overlap," judges the former deputy director of the CIA, Michael J. Morell.[ 4] Nevertheless, there is material that both - Ukraine and Israel - need equally, it is said: such as anti-aircraft missiles of the Stinger type, with which drones could be shot; the Stinger missiles are already rare, and they are hardly produced anymore. Above all, however, it applies to 155-millimeter ammunition. Ukraine has received more than two million shots from the USA, several hundred thousand more from Europe, it is reported; however, stocks are now nearing the end, reports Admiral Rob Bauer, Chairman of the NATO Military Committee. 5] But now Israel also needs them: There are sensitive bottlenecks ahead.
Two rounds of negotiations on a larger scale have now taken place. The first took place on the 24th. June in Copenhagen. Ukraine had officially invited, Denmark provided the infrastructure. Represented were the G7 countries as well as five countries of the Global South, which in turn had already tried to mediate between Moscow and Kiev - India, Brazil, South Africa, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Kiev had previously stated that the "peace formula" of President Volodymyr Zelensky was at the center of the negotiations, which essentially provides for Moscow to give up, withdraw its troops from all territories that belonged to Ukraine until the beginning of 2014, and otherwise bends to the Ukrainian demands. However, a final declaration prepared by Zelensky's presidential office leader Andriy Yermak - with recourse to central elements of the "peace formula" - was rejected by the five states of the Global South. 6] In addition, there was not only talk in Copenhagen of "security guarantees" that Ukraine should receive, but also of those that must be granted to Russia. For example, a report based on information from German Chancellor Jens Plötner said that Moscow could be promised, for example, not to station cruise missiles in Ukraine. 7]
A second round of negotiations followed on the 5th. August in the Saudi port city of Jiddah. This time, around 40 states were represented, including various states of the Global South, such as Mexico, Indonesia, Egypt and Zambia; the latter two were part of the African peace delegation, which had started mediation attempts in Kiev and Moscow in mid-June. 8] India, Brazil and South Africa were again involved; in addition, the Chinese special envoy for Ukraine, Li Hui, who had negotiated an end to the war in several European capitals in May, including Berlin, Kiev and Moscow. As in Copenhagen, Selenskyj also campaigned for his "peace formula" this time - without success; President of the President's Office Jermak then had to admit that no agreement had been reached on all elements of the "peace formula", the Global South still needs "more explanations". 9] Celso Amorim, adviser to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, stated that if you want to conduct "real negotiations", sooner or later you would have to "include all sides" - including Russia.[ 10]
The third round of negotiations, which will take place this weekend in Malta, has been delayed longer than initially thought. This is likely to be related to the fact that a central element of the Western strategy has failed: the reconquest of larger territories by the Ukrainian troops. "The more occupied territory Ukraine can liberate," explained NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in mid-June, "the better cards she has at the negotiating table." 11] The Ukrainian counter-offensive has failed; Kiev must even fear that Russia will conquer further territories - such as the city of Kupiansk. It does not have the "position of strength" that it wanted to fight for. This weakens his negotiating position.
At the same time, it is unclear how exactly the negotiations in Malta are to be conducted. Officially, Selenskyj's "peace formula" is in the center for the third time. It is not clear why the countries of the Global South should get involved this time in demands that are more illusory than ever with regard to Russia's military positions. In all differences, the first two rounds of negotiations helped to define a certain framework and to discuss, for example, security guarantees that are indispensable for both sides. However, the progress that can be achieved at this level without Russian participation is limited. Until yesterday evening, it was uncertain which countries would participate exactly; President of the Office Jermak spoke of more than 50 states, including South Africa and Turkey. It was not known whether India, Brazil and China would send representatives. This depends on whether it is possible to negotiate seriously. If you stay away, then the summit of Valletta will probably be reduced to a propaganda show.
[1] Annett Meiritz: "The support of the West for Ukraine will decrease." handelsblatt.com 15.06.2023.
[2] S. From the battlefield to the negotiating table.
[3] Karoun Demirjian: McCarthy Declines to Host House Forum for Zelensky Amid G.O.P. Rifts. nytimes.com 20.09.2023.
[4], [5] Lara Jakes, Eric Schmitt: Three Weapons That Israel and Ukraine Both Need From the U.S. nytimes.com 22.10.2023.
[6] S. The transition to diplomacy (II).
[7] Kristina Dunz: Russia's attack on Ukraine: Secret peace meeting in Copenhagen. rnd.de 26.06.2023.
[8] p. From the battlefield to the negotiating table.
[9] Not all points of Ukraine's peace formula were agreed upon in Jeddah, there are some disputes. pravda.com.ua 07.08.2023.
[10] Saudi Arabia dives into Ukraine peace push with Jeddah talks. lemonde.fr 06.08.2023.
[11] NATO Secretary General: we must ensure Ukraine can defend itself now and in the future. nato.int 15.06.2023.